Research Note: COVID-19 Is Not an Independent Cause of Death.

The COVID-19 pandemic has had overwhelming global impacts with deleterious social, economic, and health consequences. To assess the COVID-19 death toll, researchers have estimated declines in 2020 life expectancy at birth (e0). When data are available only for COVID-19 deaths, but not for deaths from other causes, the risks of dying from COVID-19 are typically assumed to be independent of those from other causes. In this research note, we explore the soundness of this assumption using data from the United States and Brazil, the countries with the largest number of reported COVID-19 deaths. We use three methods: one estimates the difference between 2019 and 2020 life tables and therefore does not require the assumption of independence, and the other two assume independence to simulate scenarios in which COVID-19 mortality is added to 2019 death rates or is eliminated from 2020 rates. Our results reveal that COVID-19 is not independent of other causes of death. The assumption of independence can lead to either an overestimate (Brazil) or an underestimate (United States) of the decline in e0, depending on how the number of other reported causes of death changed in 2020.

COVID-19 is not an Independent Cause of Death.

The COVID-19 pandemic has had overwhelming global impacts with deleterious social, economic, and health consequences. To assess the COVID-19 death toll researchers have estimated declines in 2020 life expectancy at birth. Because data are often available only for COVID-19 deaths, the risks of dying from COVID-19 are assumed to be independent of those from other causes. We explore the soundness of this assumption based on data from the US and Brazil, the countries with the largest number of reported COVID-19 deaths. We use three methods. One estimates the difference between 2019 and 2020 life tables and therefore does not require the assumption of independence. The other two assume independence to simulate scenarios in which COVID-19 mortality is added to 2019 death rates or is eliminated from 2020 rates. Our results reveal that COVID-19 is not independent of other causes of death. The assumption of independence can lead to either an overestimate (Brazil) or an underestimate (US) of the decline in e 0 , depending on how the number of other reported causes of death changed in 2020.

The Importance of Education for Middle- and Old-Age Mortality in Chile: Estimates From Panel Data Linked to Death Records.

OBJECTIVES: To examine the association between education and mortality by age and gender in Chile. METHODS: We drew data from 10,147 adults aged 40 years and over from the Chilean Social Protection Survey linked to the national death records. We specify five Cox regression models to estimate the main and interaction effects for education levels, age, sex, and mortality. RESULTS: The hazard ratios reduce with increasing education. Secondary and tertiary education levels are associated, respectively, with 34% and 41% lower hazard rates than 0-4 years of schooling. Also, the educational gradient in mortality is significantly weaker at older ages, and it does not differ by gender. DISCUSSION: Our findings endorse the negative association of formal education with adult mortality, uncovering Chile's structural problems despite the economic improvements underway. It also corroborates the importance of novel longitudinal data for mortality analyses in Latin America.

Reduction in life expectancy in Brazil after COVID-19.

Brazil has been heavily affected by coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). In this study, we used data on reported total deaths in 2020 and in January-April 2021 to measure and compare the death toll across states. We estimate a decline in 2020 life expectancy at birth (e0) of 1.3 years, a mortality level not seen since 2014. The reduction in life expectancy at age 65 (e65) in 2020 was 0.9 years, setting Brazil back to 2012 levels. The decline was larger for males, widening by 9.1% the female-male gap in e0. Among states, Amazonas lost 60.4% of the improvements in e0 since 2000. In the first 4 months of 2021, COVID-19 deaths represented 107% of the total 2020 figures. Assuming that death rates would have been equal to 2019 all-cause rates in the absence of COVID-19, COVID-19 deaths in 2021 have already reduced e0 in 2021 by 1.8 years, which is slightly larger than the reduction estimated for 2020 under similar assumptions.

Envelhecimento populacional e gastos com saúde: uma análise das transferências intergeracionais e intrageracionais na saúde suplementar brasileira / Population aging and health spending: an analysis of intergenerational and intragenerational transfers in the Brazilian private health care plans / Envejecimiento de la población y el gasto en salud: un análisis de las transferencias intergeneracionales e intrageneracionales en los planes privados de salud de Brasil

O modelo de precificação de planos de saúde no Brasil prevê a imposição de limites de variação das mensalidades por faixa etária, possibilitando a transferência de recursos dos mais jovens, que têm menor risco de utilização, para aqueles em idades mais avançadas. O aumento da proporção de idosos nas carteiras dos planos de saúde poderá inviabilizar as transferências intergeracionais e a atual estrutura de precificação. O objetivo deste artigo é estimar a magnitude das transferências intergeracionais (entre diferentes grupos de idade) e intrageracionais (em um mesmo grupo de idade) na saúde suplementar brasileira, por meio da análise de dados de uma amostra representativa de operadoras de planos de saúde. Segundo os resultados encontrados, os saldos das transferências intergeracionais foram positivos e ocorrem dos mais jovens para beneficiários de 66 anos ou mais. Os resultados mostram ainda a ocorrência de transferências intrageracionais em duas das faixas etárias definidas pela legislação vigente: 0 a 18 anos e 59 anos ou mais. Finalmente, o exercício de retroprojeção demonstrou que nos últimos 15 anos a sinistralidade nos planos individuais apresentou constante aumento, indicando risco crescente de insuficiência das mensalidades para fins de custeio das despesas no médio prazo, em razão do envelhecimento populacional.

The health insurance pricing model in Brazil prohibits large variations of monthly fees by imposing strict premium rules by age. Therefore, intergenerational transfers may occur from younger age groups, who are lower-risk, to older ones. Population aging will result in a larger share of policyholders at older ages, increasing intergenerational transfers and making the current pricing structure unsustainable in the future. The aim of this article is to estimate the magnitude of intergenerational and intragenerational transfers (within the same age group) in the Brazilian private health care plans, by examining data from a representative sample of health insurance providers. We found intergenerational transfers to occur, on average, from policy holders younger than 66 years of age to older ones. Results also show significant intragenerational transfers within two of the age groups defined by existing legislation: 0 to 18 and 59 years and older. Finally, simulations using changes in the age structure over the last 15 years confirm population aging may result in larger intergenerational transfers with increasing loss-ratio over time.

El modelo de fijación de precios de seguros de salud en Brasil prohíbe grandes variaciones de las tarifas mensuales mediante la imposición de reglas estrictas por franja etaria, lo que posibilita transferencias intergeneracionales desde los grupos de edades más jóvenes, que son de menor riesgo, hacia los de edades más avanzadas. El envejecimiento de la población asegurada a la salud implicará un aumento de las transferencias intergeneracionales y hará que la estructura actual de precios sea insostenible en el futuro. El objetivo de este artículo es estimar la magnitud de las transferencias intergeneracionales (entre diferentes grupos de edad) e intrageneracionales (dentro del mismo grupo etario) en los planes de salud privados brasileños, mediante el análisis de los datos de una muestra representativa de los proveedores de seguros de salud. Según los resultados obtenidos, los saldos de las transferencias intergeneracionales fueron positivos y ocurren desde los más jóvenes hacia los asegurados de 66 años o más. Los resultados muestran también la ocurrencia de transferencias intrageneracionales en dos franjas etarias definidas por la legislación vigente: de cero a 18 años y de 59 años o más. Finalmente, el ejercicio de retroproyección demostró que en los últimos 15 años la siniestralidad en los planos individuales presentó un aumento constante, que indica un riesgo creciente de insuficiencia de las mensualidades para costear las transferencia en el mediano plazo, a causa del envejecimiento poblacional.

Disponibilidade de irmãos no Brasil: um estudo metodológico sobre relações de parentesco / Availability of siblings in Brazil: a methodological study on kinship relationships / Disponibilidad de hermanos en Brasil: un estudio metodológico sobre las relaciones de parentesco

Quando a fecundidade declina, não é somente o número de filhos que se torna menor, mas também o número de irmãos. Para determinar as mudanças ocorridas sobre a disponibilidade de irmãos no Brasil, o presente estudo emprega um método que se destina a estimar o número esperado de irmãos nascidos vivos e sobreviventes, por meio de modelos matemáticos que utilizam apenas taxas de fecundidade e de mortalidade. Os resultados indicam que, no início da transição demográfica brasileira, a média de irmãos nascidos vivos se estabelece em patamares elevados e sofre um forte declínio durante o processo, motivado principalmente pela queda da fecundidade. Observa-se, ainda, que a média de irmãos sobreviventes nas idades mais avançadas tende a ser muito semelhante para coortes mais velhas e mais novas, mas o número de irmãos sobreviventes durante a infância dessas coortes tende a diferenciar-se fortemente. Isso ocorre porque, por um lado, o efeito da elevada mortalidade, principalmente a infantil, reduz a média de irmãos gerados pela alta fecundidade para as coortes mais velhas e, por outro, a queda da fecundidade diminui o número de irmãos nascidos vivos das coortes mais novas, ao mesmo tempo que a redução da mortalidade garante sua quase constância no ciclo de vida. Como conclusão, indica-se que: o número médio de irmãos nascidos vivos tende a se estabelecer em baixos níveis nos próximos anos; o número médio de irmãos sobreviventes tende a ser cada vez mais próximo da média do número de irmãos nascidos vivos; e, apesar dos baixos níveis de fecundidade corrente, não se pode falar em uma tendência de extinção dos irmãos e, por consequência, primos, tios, etc...

When fertility declines, it is not only the number of children that becomes smaller, but the number of siblings as well. To determine changes in the number of siblings over time in Brazil, this study uses a method that is designed to estimate, through mathematical models which use only fertility and mortality rates, the availability of surviving siblings in different cohorts. The results indicate that, at the beginning of the demographic transition, the mean number of the born alive siblings is established at high levels and suffers a sharp decline during the transition, mainly due to falling fertility. They also show that the mean number of the surviving siblings at older ages tends to be very similar for older and younger cohorts. However, the mean number of surviving siblings during the childhood of these cohorts tends to differ greatly. This is due to high mortality, especially infant mortality, on the one hand and, on the other, from fertility decline which reduces the number of live births in more recent cohorts while the reduction of mortality increases their chances of survival. The study's conclusion points out the following trends: the mean number of surviving siblings will tend to settle at lower levels in coming years and the mean number of surviving siblings tends to be increasingly closer to the mean number born alive. Despite current low levels of fertility, it would be incorrect to speak of the extinction of siblings and, consequently, of cousins, uncles, etc...

La reducción de la fecundidad reduce no sólo solamente el número de niños, pero también el número de hermanos. Para evaluar los cambios en la disponibilidad de hermanos en Brasil, se utilizó un método que estima el número esperado de hermanos nacidos vivos y sobrevivientes por medio de modelos matemáticos que utilizan solamente las tasas de fecundidad y mortalidad. Nuestros resultados indican que, en el comienzo de la transición demográfica, el promedio de hermanos nacidos vivos se establece en niveles altos y sufre una fuerte caída durante la transición, debido principalmente a la caída de la fecundidad. Los resultados muestran que el promedio de hermanos sobrevivientes a edades más avanzadas tiende a ser muy similar para las cohortes de más edad y las más jóvenes. Sin embargo, el número medio de hermanos sobrevivientes durante la infancia de estas cohortes tiende a variar mucho. Esto ocurre por dos razones. Por un lado, la mortalidad elevada, principalmente la infantil, reduce el número medio de hermanos para las cohortes más viejas. Por otro, el descenso de la fecundidad disminuye el número de nascidos vivos en las cohortes más nuevas, mientras la reducción de la mortalidad aumenta sus posibilidades de sobrevivencia. En conclusión, las siguientes tendencias son señaladas: el número promedio de hermanos nacidos vivos tiende a establecerse en niveles bajos en los próximos años, el número medio de hermanos sobrevivientes tiende a ser más cerca de la media de nacidos vivos, y a pesar de la reducción de la fecundidad, no hay evidencia de una posible extinción de los hermanos y, en consecuencia, de primos, tíos, etc...

The Effect of Changes in Educational Composition on Adult Female Mortality in Brazil.

The last century in Brazil was witness to profound changes. Female life expectancy at birth increased from 34.6 years in 1910 to 77.26 years in 2010. At the same time, the educational composition of the population has changed dramatically. In the 1940s, only 25% of the children aged 5-14 years old were enrolled in school. Currently, nearly all children attend school. We examine the extent to which changes in the age-specific distribution of education have contributed to the decline in adult mortality among women in Brazil. Our analysis follows other applications in the literature to measure the mortality reduction that would occur if exposure to specific risk factors was changed at the counterfactual level. The effects are not trivial: Between 1960 and 2010, about 38% of the increase in life expectancy at age 30 can be attributed to changes in the educational composition of women. An additional 22% increase is expected until 2040.

Association between age and survival in a cohort of Brazilian patients with operable breast cancer.

Whether age is an independent prognostic factor in breast cancer is a matter of debate. This is a retrospective cohort study of 767 breast cancer patients, stages I-III, treated at the Hospital das Clínicas, Minas Gerais Federal University, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais State, Brazil, from 2001 to 2008, aiming to study the relationship between age and survival. We included variables related to patients, tumors, and types of treatment. Different sets of Cox models were used for survival analysis. Hazard ratios (HR) and 95%CI were calculated. The relationship between age and breast cancer survival did not change substantially in any of them. In the model that accounted for all variables, women aged 70 and older (HR = 1.51, 95%CI: 1.04-2.18), and 35 or younger (HR = 1.78, 95%CI: 1.05-3.01) had shorter cancer specific survival than patients aged between 36 and 69. In addition, older age, having at least one comorbidity, and being white were associated with a higher risk of dying from other causes. In conclusion, shorter breast cancer survival is expected among the youngest and oldest patients.

Association between age and survival in a cohort of Brazilian patients with operable breast cancer / Associação entre idade e sobrevida em uma coorte de pacientes brasileiras com câncer de mama operável / Asociación entre edad y supervivencia en una cohorte de pacientes brasileñas con cáncer de mama operable

Whether age is an independent prognostic factor in breast cancer is a matter of debate. This is a retrospective cohort study of 767 breast cancer patients, stages I-III, treated at the Hospital das Clínicas, Minas Gerais Federal University, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais State, Brazil, from 2001 to 2008, aiming to study the relationship between age and survival. We included variables related to patients, tumors, and types of treatment. Different sets of Cox models were used for survival analysis. Hazard ratios (HR) and 95%CI were calculated. The relationship between age and breast cancer survival did not change substantially in any of them. In the model that accounted for all variables, women aged 70 and older (HR = 1.51, 95%CI: 1.04-2.18), and 35 or younger (HR = 1.78, 95%CI: 1.05-3.01) had shorter cancer specific survival than patients aged between 36 and 69. In addition, older age, having at least one comorbidity, and being white were associated with a higher risk of dying from other causes. In conclusion, shorter breast cancer survival is expected among the youngest and oldest patients.

É discutível se idade é um fator prognóstico independente para câncer de mama. Conduzimos uma coorte retrospectiva de 767 pacientes com câncer de mama, estádios I-III, tratadas no Hospital das Clínicas, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brasil, de 2001 a 2008, para estudar a relação entre idade e sobrevida. Incluímos variáveis relacionadas às pacientes, aos tumores e ao tratamento. Diferentes conjuntos de modelos de Cox foram construídos. As razões de risco (RR) e IC95% foram calculados. A relação entre idade e sobrevida por câncer de mama não foi alterada substancialmente entre os modelos de Cox. No modelo com todas as variáveis explicativas, as mulheres de 70 anos ou mais (RR = 1,51; IC95%: 1,04-2,18) e até 35 anos (RR = 1,78; IC95%: 1,05-3,01) tiveram sobrevida causa-específica mais curta que as de 36-69 anos. Idades a partir de 70 anos, ter ao menos uma comorbidade e ser branca foram associadas a risco maior de óbito por outras causas. Em conclusão, as pacientes mais jovens e as mais idosas parecem ter sobrevida mais curta por câncer de mama.

Es discutible si la edad es un factor pronóstico independiente para el cáncer de mama. Se realizó sobre una cohorte retrospectiva de 767 pacientes con cáncer de mama, etapas I-III, atendidas en el Hospital de Clínicas, Universidad Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brasil, entre 2001 y 2008, para estudiar la relación entre edad y supervivencia. Incluimos variables relacionadas con las pacientes, los tumores y el tratamiento. Se construyeron diferentes conjuntos de modelos de Cox. Se calcularon los cocientes de riesgo (CR) e IC95%. La relación entre edad y supervivencia del cáncer de mama no ha cambiado substancialmente en los modelos. En el modelo con todas las variables, las mujeres de 70 años o más (CR = 1,51; IC95%: 1,04-2,18) y 35 años o menos (CR = 1,78; IC95%: 1,05-3,01) tuvieron menor supervivencia por cáncer de mama que las de 36 a 69 años. Tener edad avanzada, al menos una comorbilidad, y ser de piel blanca se asociaron a un mayor riesgo de morir por otras causas. En conclusión, las mujeres más jóvenes y las mayores parecen tener menor supervivencia de cáncer de mama.

O uso das taxas de crescimento por idade para identificação das principais etapas da transição demográfica no Brasil / The use of growth rates by age to identify the main stages of the demographic transition in Brazil / El uso de las tasas de crecimiento por edad para la identificación de las principales etapas de la transición demográfica en Brasil

A análise do conjunto de taxas específicas de crescimento por idade de uma população, proposta por Horiuchi e Preston (1988), é uma maneira alternativa de investigar o processo da mudança da estrutura etária de uma população, bem como de examinar possíveis "marcas" deixadas pela história demográfica de cada coorte. O objetivo deste trabalho é aplicar tal metodologia à população brasileira, discutindo grandes mudanças demográficas a partir da função corrente de crescimento populacional do Brasil, observada nos períodos entre 1970 e 1980, 1980 e 1990, 1990 e 2000, 2000 e 2010. A partir dos padrões da função de taxas específicas de crescimento, simulados por Horiuchi e Preston (1988) para descrever a estrutura das taxas específicas de crescimento para cada regime de mudança demográfica, foram avaliadas possíveis marcas da história demográfica presentes nas atuais coortes brasileiras. Os resultados demonstram que as informações contidas nas taxas específicas de crescimento são bastante elucidativas com relação aos efeitos de variações nos regimes demográficos, sendo de grande utilidade em populações cujas taxas vitais não são confiáveis ou estão indisponíveis.

The analysis of the set of age specific growth rates in a population, proposed by Horiuchi and Preston (1988), is an alternative way to examine the process of changing age structure as well as to examine potential "marks" left by the demographic history of each cohort. The objective of this study is to apply this methodology to the Brazilian population and discuss some of the major demographic changes on the basis of growth rates seen in Brazil since the 1970s. Based on patterns of specific growth rates simulated by these authors to describe the structure of specific growth rates for each type of demographic changes, we evaluate possible stages in the country's demographic history that may be present in the current cohorts. The results show that the information contained in specific growth rates are quite instructive regarding the effects of variations in demographic regimes and is very useful for populations where vital rates are unreliable or unavailable.

El análisis del conjunto de las tasas específicas de crecimiento por edad de una población, propuesto por Horiuchi y Preston (1988), es una forma alternativa de investigar el proceso de cambio de la estructura etaria de una población y de examinar las posibles "marcas" que ha dejado la historia demográfica de cada cohorte. El objetivo de este trabajo es aplicar esta metodología a la población brasileña, analizando los grandes cambios demográficos observados en el país desde 1970 hasta la actualidad sobre la base de las tasas de crecimiento poblacionales. A partir de los patrones de las funciones de las tasas específicas de crecimiento, simuladas por esos autores para describir la estructura de estas tasas para cada régimen de cambio demográfico, se evaluaron las posibles marcas que la historia demográfica ha dejado en las actuales cohortes brasileñas. Los resultados demuestran que la información contenida en las tasas específicas de crecimiento es bastante esclarecedora de los efectos de las variaciones en los regímenes demográficos, y es muy útil en poblaciones cuyas tasas vitales no son confiables o no están disponibles.

Efectos de la migración sobre el crecimiento poblacional a largo plazo de las provincias cubanas / Efeitos da migração sobre o crescimento populacional de longo prazo das províncias cubanas / Effects of migration on long-term population growth in the provinces of Cuba

Cuba es un país que, además de presentar niveles de fecundidad inferiores al nivel de reemplazo, ha registrado un significativo saldo migratorio negativo. Se observa también un intenso flujo migratorio interno cuyo patrón es muy diferente entre las provincias. Debido a la magnitud de estos flujos migratorios, la migración se presenta como un componente demográfico importante en la dinámica poblacional cubana. De esta forma, el objetivo de este trabajo es estimar el efecto de la migración interna e internacional sobre el potencial de crecimiento a largo plazo de Cuba y de sus provincias. Para esto, calculamos medidas de reproducción y de crecimiento poblacional a partir de los métodos demográficos convencionales y de la metodología propuesta por Preston y Wang (2007), que se basa en los métodos de variable r. Considerando el patrón demográfico corriente, en la mayoría de los territorios de Cuba se observa una reducción substantiva en la capacidad de reposición de las generaciones y en tamaño futuro de la población cuando se consideran los efectos de la migración.

Cuba é um país que, além de apresentar níveis de fecundidade inferiores ao nível de reposição, tem registrado um saldo migratório líquido negativo significativo. Observa-se também um intenso fluxo migratório interno, cujo padrão é bastante diferente nas diversas províncias do país. Devido à magnitude destes fluxos migratórios, a migração apresenta-se como um componente demográfico importante na dinâmica populacional cubana. Assim, o objetivo deste trabalho é estimar o efeito das migrações interna e internacional sobre o potencial de crescimento de longo prazo de Cuba e de suas províncias. Para tanto, foram calculadas medidas de reprodução e de crescimento populacional a partir dos métodos demográficos convencionais e da metodologia proposta por Preston e Wang (2007), que se baseia nos métodos da variável-r. Levando em conta o padrão demográfico atual, observa-se, na maioria dos territórios de Cuba, uma redução substantiva na capacidade de reposição das gerações e no tamanho futuro da população quando se consideram os efeitos da migração.

Cuba has shown very low fertility levels, even below replacement level, in addition to significant negative net migration flows. In the country's interior there is intense population mobility, characterized by different migration patterns from one province to another. In this article the effects of both internal and international migration flows on long-term population growth in Cuba and in its provinces are discussed. We estimate reproduction and population growth measures using conventional demographic methods, together with the methodology developed by Preston and Wang (2007), based on variable-r methods. Given current demographic patterns in the majority of Cuban provinces, and when migration effects are accounted for, our analysis shows significant negative consequences for the future maintenance of the Cuban population.

Survival of patients with operable breast cancer (Stages I-III) at a Brazilian public hospital--a closer look into cause-specific mortality.

BACKGROUND: Breast cancer incidence is increasing. The survival rate varies and is longer in high-income countries. In Brazil, lower-income populations rely on the Unified Public Health System (Sistema Único de Saude, SUS) for breast cancer care. The goal of our study is to evaluate the survival of patients with operable breast cancer stages I-III at a Brazilian public hospital that treats mostly patients from the SUS. METHODS: A cohort study of patients who underwent surgery for breast cancer treatment at the Clinical Hospital of the Federal University of Minas Gerais from 2001 to 2008 was performed, with a population of 897 cases. Information on tumor pathology and staging, as well as patients' age and type of health coverage (SUS or private system) was collected. A probabilistic record linkage was performed with the database of the Mortality Information System to identify patients who died by December 31th, 2011. The basic cause of death was retrieved, and breast cancer-specific survival rates were estimated with the Kaplan-Meier method. The Cox proportional hazards model was used for univariate and multivariate analysis of factors related to survival. RESULTS: A total of 282 deaths occurred during the study's period, 228 of them due to breast cancer. Five-year breast cancer-specific survival rates were 95.5% for stage I, 85.1% for stage II and 62.1% for stage III disease. Patients from the SUS had higher stages at diagnosis (42% was in stage III, and from the private system only 17.6% was in this stage), and in the univariate but not multivariate analysis, being treated by the SUS was associated with shorter survival (hazard ratio, HR = 2.22, 95% CI 1.24-3.98). In the multivariate analysis, larger tumor size, higher histologic grade, higher number of positive nodes and age older than 70 years were associated with a shorter breast cancer-specific survival. CONCLUSIONS: Five-year breast cancer survival was comparable to other Brazilian cohorts. Patients treated by the SUS, rather than by the private system, had shorter survival times, mostly due to higher initial stage of the disease.

[Association between marital status and mortality among elderly residents in São Paulo City, Brazil, SABE Study, 2000 and 2006]. / Associação entre mortalidade e estado marital: uma análise para idosos residentes no Município de São Paulo, Brasil, Estudo SABE, 2000 e 2006.

This study aimed to analyze the association between mortality and marital status in the elderly population (60 years and older) in São Paulo, Brazil. The authors used data from the SABE Study (Health, Well-Being, and Aging) from 2000 and 2006. Statistical analysis used Poisson regression, considering variation in time of mortality risk. The mortality rate among single elderly males was 61% higher than among married men. Separation or divorce and widowhood increased the odds of death in elderly women (separated/divorced women and widows showed mortality rates 82% and 35% higher, respectively, than married women). It is hoped that the current study will improve our understanding of factors associated with survival in the elderly, in addition to supporting health policies for this population group.

Associação entre mortalidade e estado marital: uma análise para idosos residentes no Município de São Paulo, Brasil, Estudo SABE, 2000 e 2006 / Association between marital status and mortality among elderly residents in São Paulo City, Brazil, SABE Study, 2000 and 2006 / Asociación entre el estado civil y la mortalidad: un análisis de los ancianos residentes en São Paulo, Brasil, el Estudio SABE, 2000 y 2006

Este trabalho tem como objetivo analisar, para a população com 60 anos e mais, residente no Município de São Paulo, Brasil, a associação entre mortalidade e estado marital. Para atingir o objetivo proposto, foram utilizados os dados do Estudo SABE: Saúde, Bem-estar e Envelhecimento (SABE), realizado nos anos 2000 e 2006, e modelos de Regressão de Poisson foram estimados, levando-se, em consideração, a variação do tempo de risco de morte. No geral, os resultados indicam que, entre os idosos paulistanos do sexo masculino, a taxa de mortalidade dos solteiros é 61% maior que a taxa de mortalidade observada para os casados. Por sua vez, a separação/divórcio ou a viuvez parece elevar a chance de morte das mulheres idosas analisadas. No geral, idosas separadas e viúvas apresentaram taxas de mortalidade 82% e 35% maiores que a observada para as casadas. Espera-se que este trabalho possa contribuir para um melhor entendimento dos fatores associados à sobrevivência dos idosos, além de subsidiar políticas de saúde voltadas para esse contingente populacional.

This study aimed to analyze the association between mortality and marital status in the elderly population (60 years and older) in São Paulo, Brazil. The authors used data from the SABE Study (Health, Well-Being, and Aging) from 2000 and 2006. Statistical analysis used Poisson regression, considering variation in time of mortality risk. The mortality rate among single elderly males was 61% higher than among married men. Separation or divorce and widowhood increased the odds of death in elderly women (separated/divorced women and widows showed mortality rates 82% and 35% higher, respectively, than married women). It is hoped that the current study will improve our understanding of factors associated with survival in the elderly, in addition to supporting health policies for this population group.

Este trabajo tiene como objetivo analizar la asociación entre el estado civil y la mortalidad, entre la población de 60 años o más que vive en São Paulo, Brasil. Para alcanzar ese objetivo, se utilizaron los datos del Estudio SABE (Salud, Bienestar y Envejecimiento), realizado en 2000 y 2006, y los modelos de regresión de Poisson se estimaron teniendo en cuenta la variación tiempo en el riesgo de muerte. En general, los resultados indican que, entre los ancianos de sexo masculino en São Paulo, la tasa de mortalidad de solteros es un 61% más alta que la tasa de mortalidad observada para los casados. A su vez, la separación/divorcio o viudez parece aumentar el riesgo de muerte de las mujeres ancianas. En general, las ancianas separadas y viudas presentaron tasas de mortalidad un 82% y un 35% mayores que la observada para las casadas. Se espera que este trabajo contribuya a una mejor comprensión de los factores asociados con la supervivencia de los ancianos, además de apoyar las políticas de salud dirigidas a este contingente de población.

Do biological measures mediate the relationship between education and health: A comparative study.

Despite a myriad of studies examining the relationship between socioeconomic status and health outcomes, few have assessed the extent to which biological markers of chronic disease account for social disparities in health. Studies that have examined this issue have generally been based on surveys in wealthy countries that include a small set of clinical markers of cardiovascular disease. The availability of recent data from nationally representative surveys of older adults in Costa Rica and Taiwan that collected a rich set of biomarkers comparable to those in a recent US survey permits us to explore these associations across diverse populations. Similar regression models were estimated on three data sets - the Social Environment and Biomarkers of Aging Study in Taiwan, the Costa Rican Study on Longevity and Healthy Aging, and the Health and Retirement Study in the USA - in order to assess (1) the strength of the associations between educational attainment and a broad range of biomarkers; and (2) the extent to which these biomarkers account for the relationships between education and two measures of health status (self-rated health, functional limitations) in older populations. The estimates suggest non-systematic and weak associations between education and high risk biomarker values in Taiwan and Costa Rica, in contrast to generally negative and significant associations in the US, especially among women. The results also reveal negligible or modest contributions of the biomarkers to educational disparities in the health outcomes. The findings are generally consistent with previous research suggesting stronger associations between socioeconomic status and health in wealthy countries than in middle-income countries and may reflect higher levels of social stratification in the US. With access to an increasing number of longitudinal biosocial surveys, researchers may be better able to distinguish true variations in the relationship between socioeconomic status and health across different settings from methodological differences.

The Impact of Salmon Bias on the Hispanic Mortality Advantage: New Evidence from Social Security Data.

A great deal of research has focused on factors that may contribute to the Hispanic mortality paradox in the United States. In this paper, we examine the role of the salmon bias hypothesis - the selective return of less-healthy Hispanics to their country of birth - on mortality at ages 65 and above. These analyses are based on data drawn from the Master Beneficiary Record and NUMIDENT data files of the Social Security Administration. These data provide the first direct evidence regarding the effect of salmon bias on the Hispanic mortality advantage. Although we confirm the existence of salmon bias, it is of too small a magnitude to be a primary explanation for the lower mortality of Hispanic than NH white primary social security beneficiaries. Longitudinal surveys that follow individuals in and out of the United States are needed to further explore the role of migration in the health and mortality of foreign-born US residents and factors that contribute to the Hispanic mortality paradox.

Socioeconomic differences in mortality among U.S. adults: insights into the Hispanic paradox.

OBJECTIVES: This study examined socioeconomic differentials in mortality among Hispanics in the United States, focusing on the older ages. We address previous research suggesting that social disparities in health are smaller for Hispanics than for non-Hispanic Whites and examine whether these differentials in survival are related to the mortality advantage that characterizes the older Hispanic population (i.e., the Hispanic paradox). METHODS: We used Poisson regression models based on data from the 1989 to 1994 waves of the National Health Interview Survey, with linked mortality through 1997, to estimate death rates for Hispanics and non-Hispanic Whites by age, gender, and socioeconomic status. RESULTS: Deaths rates varied significantly (p <.05) by education and income for Whites and Hispanic subgroups defined by nativity (U.S. born and foreign born) and nationality (Mexican, Puerto Rican, and other Hispanic). However, with the exception of Puerto Ricans, the effects of education were significantly smaller for Hispanics than for Whites. The ethnic differences in mortality patterns by income were not statistically significant. DISCUSSION: The findings reveal that the mortality advantage for Hispanics is concentrated at lower levels of socioeconomic status, with little or no advantage at higher levels. We propose several mechanisms related to immigration and assimilation patterns that may underlie these patterns of mortality.

Predicting mortality from clinical and nonclinical biomarkers.

BACKGROUND: Few studies focus on "preclinical" warning signs associated with mortality. In this article, we investigate associations between all-cause mortality and two clusters of biological risk factors: (i) standard clinical measures related to cardiovascular disease and metabolic function; and (ii) nonclinical measures pertaining to hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis activity, sympathetic nervous system activity, and inflammatory response. METHODS: Data come from the 2000 Social Environment and Biomarkers of Aging Study, a national sample of Taiwanese persons aged 54 years or older; 1497 persons were interviewed in their homes, and 1023 participated in a hospital examination. The analysis is based on 927 respondents with complete information. Logistic regression models describe the association between biomarkers and the 3-year probability of dying. RESULTS: Although both groups of biomarkers are significantly associated with mortality, the model with neuroendocrine and immune biomarkers has better explanatory and discriminatory power than the one with clinical measures. The association between these nonclinical measures and mortality remains strong after adjustment for the clinical markers, suggesting that the physiological effects of the nonclinical biomarkers are broader than those captured by the cardiovascular and metabolic system measures included here. CONCLUSIONS: Nonclinical markers are likely to provide warning signs of deteriorating health and function beyond what can be learned from conventional markers. Our findings are consistent with those of recent studies that (i) demonstrate the importance of neuroendocrine and immune system markers for survival, and (ii) indicate that standard clinical variables are less predictive of mortality in older than in younger populations.